The Tampa Bay Lightning host the Florida Panthers Wednesday in Game 5 of the NHL Playoffs First Round, beginning at 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN2. The Panthers have a 3-1 edge in the series. Oddsmakers give the Lightning -114 odds on the moneyline in this matchup against the Panthers (-106).
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Here's our pick for who will secure the win in this NHL Playoffs First Round contest.
Lightning vs. Panthers Predictions for Wednesday
Our computer projection model for this game expects a final result of Lightning 4, Panthers 2.
- Moneyline Pick: Lightning (-114)
- Total Pick: Over 5.5 (computer predicts 6 goals on average)
- Spread Pick: Lightning (-1.5)
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Lightning Splits and Trends
- The Lightning are 47-27-8 overall and 6-8-14 in overtime games.
- Tampa Bay is 8-9-5 (21 points) in its 22 games decided by one goal.
- In the nine games this season the Lightning scored only one goal, they finished 0-8-1.
- Tampa Bay has finished 2-11-3 in the 16 games this season when it scored exactly two goals (registering seven points).
- The Lightning have scored at least three goals 57 times, and are 46-7-4 in those games (to register 96 points).
- In the 32 games when Tampa Bay has capitalized on a single power-play goal, it went 22-9-1 to register 45 points.
- When it has outshot its opponent, Tampa Bay is 25-18-0 (50 points).
- The Lightning have been outshot by opponents 39 times, and went 22-9-8 (52 points).
Panthers Splits and Trends
- The Panthers have earned a record of 10-4-14 in overtime contests on their way to an overall mark of 47-31-4.
- Florida has earned 26 points (11-6-4) in its 21 games that finished with a one-goal margin.
- In 17 games this season when the Panthers ended a game with only one goal, they earned a total of six points (3-14-0).
- Florida has earned 14 points (6-7-2 record) this season when scoring two goals .
- The Panthers have earned 84 points in their 49 games with three or more goals scored.
- This season, Florida has capitalized on a lone power-play goal in 37 games and picked up 52 points with a record of 24-9-4.
- When outshooting its opponent this season, Florida is 33-21-3 (69 points).
- The Panthers' opponents have had more shots in 21 games. The Panthers finished 11-9-1 in those contests (23 points).
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Team Stats Comparison
| Lightning Rank | Lightning AVG | Panthers AVG | Panthers Rank | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 3.56 | Goals Scored | 3 | 15th |
| 4th | 2.63 | Goals Allowed | 2.72 | 7th |
| 12th | 28.5 | Shots | 31.5 | 3rd |
| 14th | 28.1 | Shots Allowed | 26.2 | 5th |
| 5th | 25.86% | Power Play % | 23.83% | 11th |
| 6th | 81.55% | Penalty Kill % | 80.42% | 10th |
Lightning vs. Panthers Game Time and TV Channel
- When: Wednesday, April 30, 2025 at 7:30 p.m. ET
- TV Channel: ESPN2
- Live Stream: Watch this game on Fubo (Regional restrictions may apply)
- Where: Amalie Arena in Tampa, Florida
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