Capitals vs. Lightning Prediction & Picks - Oct. 3

The Tampa Bay Lightning (0-1), coming off a 5-1 loss to the New York Rangers, host the Washington Capitals (1-0) at Benchmark International Arena on Saturday, Oct. 3 at 7 p.m. ET on ESPN+. The Capitals defeated the Carolina Hurricanes 5-2 in their last outing.

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Ahead of watching this matchup, here's our pick for which club will secure the win in Saturday's hockey action.

Capitals vs. Lightning Predictions for Saturday

Our computer projections model for this encounter expects a final tally of Capitals 6, Lightning 0.

• Moneyline Pick: Capitals (+155)
• Total Pick: No Pick - Predicted Margin Negligible
• Spread Pick: Capitals (+1.5)

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Lightning Splits and Trends

• The Lightning finished 12-8-20 in overtime contests last season as part of an overall record of 50-26-6.
• In the 32 games Tampa Bay played that were decided by one goal, it had a 14-12-6 record (good for 34 points).
• In the 11 games last season the Lightning scored only one goal, they went 3-7-1 (seven points).
• Tampa Bay took 14 points from the 21 games last season when it scored exactly two goals (5-12-4 record).
• The Lightning were 45-7-3 when they scored more than two goals (to register 93 points).
• In the 30 games when Tampa Bay scored a lone power-play goal, it went 17-9-4 to register 38 points.
• In the 51 games last season when it outshot its opponent, Tampa Bay was 30-15-6 (66 points).
• The Lightning were outshot by their opponent in 36 games, going 21-13-2 to register 44 points.

Capitals Splits and Trends

• The Capitals had a 6-9-15 record in overtime games last season, and a 43-30-9 overall record.
• Washington picked up 25 points (11-8-3) in its 22 games decided by one goal.
• Last season the Capitals scored only one goal in 10 games, and they picked up two points (1-9-0).
• When Washington scored two goals last season, they amassed 16 points (5-9-6 record).
• The Capitals picked up 77 points in their 49 games when they scored at least three goals.
• Last season Washington scored a single power-play goal in 27 games and picked up 32 points, with a record of 15-10-2.
• When outshooting its opponent last season, Washington was 21-13-3 (45 points).
• The Capitals' opponents had more shots in 39 games last season. The Capitals went 20-14-5 in those games (45 points).

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Team Stats Comparison (2025-26)

Capitals vs. Lightning Game Time and TV Channel

• When: Saturday, October 3, 2026 at 7 p.m. ET
• TV Channel: ESPN+
• Live Stream: Watch this game on ESPN+
• Where: Benchmark International Arena in Tampa, Florida

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